Aston Villa may have to surprise a few people if they are to enjoy another successful Premier League season in 2024/25 alongside their Champions League exploits.
Unai Emery will be determined to show that Aston Villa‘s top four finish last season was not just a flash in the pan.
We have seen clubs come and go before in the Premier League, with Leicester City, Everton and Newcastle United all unable to back up top four finishes in the last 20 years.
Villa have put themselves in a far better position than those sides to build on their progress, with the arrivals of the eight players this summer if you include the returning Cameron Archer following Sheffield United’s relegation.
The likes of Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen and Ross Barkley have all arrived to improve Emery’s options, but the departures of Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby are ones the club could yet rue as they look to compete on all fronts.
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Opta predict Aston Villa to miss out on Europe with 2024/25 Premier League finish
Many will be expecting a drop off in Villa’s domestic performances as they enter Europe’s elite club competition for the first time since 1983.
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Emery will not allow standards to slip, but it will be intriguing to see how the four-time Europa League winner balances the four competitions Villa will compete in this season.
Opta have now released their annual predictions ahead of the new season, using their supercomputer to ascertain the probability of where each side will finish in the Premier League.
The predictions are caveated by explaining that the computer can only go off what is known now and not any rumoured transfers or similar.
Opta also run the season simulation 10,000 times to establish a reliable output.
If Opta are to be believed then it is bad news for Villa as they are predicted to finish eighth which would likely see them miss out on European football in the 2025/26 season all together.
This has been explained by Opta, who cite Villa’s Champions League exploits as a likely reason, saying: “The addition of Champions League football to Aston Villa’s schedule could prove problematic for Unai Emery’s squad, and the Opta supercomputer isn’t positive about their chances of back-to-back top-four finishes in the Premier League.
“They are projected to clinch another top-four spot in only 7.3% of simulations, just ahead of Crystal Palace (5.4%) – who greatly improved once Oliver Glasner was appointed as head coach last season – and West Ham (2.2%).”
Unai Emery will use Aston Villa doubters as motivation
Whilst the Opta computer cannot be accused of any biases, there will be plenty of pundits and football fans who have written off Villa’s chances of securing consecutive top four finishes.
Emery is a great motivator as well as a meticulous planner and he will surely use this outside noise as a way of firing up his Villa players throughout the new campaign.
This will start with a trip to face West Ham in the season opener on Saturday evening; an opponent who Opta predict will perform very similarly to Villa across the campaign.
Villa proved everyone wrong last season as they secured a Champions League spot alongside a run to the Europa Conference League semi-final, it would be foolish to write them off again.
